National Market Index – Published November 25, 2025 (Reflecting September 2025 Data)
The November 25, 2025 release of the National Market Index, reporting on September 2025 data as a lagging indicator, confirms that inflation-adjusted home values continue to soften gradually. The latest finalized HPI/CPI reading for September is 1.0101, rounded from 1.01008. This represents a year-over-year decline of 1.7 percent and positions pricing 2.98 percent below the May 2022 peak of 1.0412. Even after more than two years of correction, national prices remain 27.2 percent above their long-term historical average, reinforcing that values are still significantly elevated relative to any pre-pandemic baseline. The published composite index level of 1.01164 as of October 29, 2025 reflects interim adjustments but is not used in comparative trend analysis. The September reading is the most current closed monthly data and is the appropriate reference point for performance evaluation.
Between 2000 and 2020, inflation-adjusted home values typically remained within the 0.60 to 0.80 range. Today’s reading of 1.0101 confirms that the market is still priced well above historical norms even after softening from peak levels. In real terms, national home values are now 70.7 percent above where they were in January 2000, indicating a structural shift into a higher-cost housing environment shaped by chronic supply shortages, rising construction inputs, and durable demand patterns concentrated around major economic centers.
The current correction, which began following the May 2022 national peak, has now progressed for 40 months. Over that period, values have declined just 2.98 percent. By comparison, during the 2006 to 2012 cycle home values fell 35.24 percent over 71 months. That contrast highlights the nature of this cycle, which is being defined by affordability and inflation normalization rather than a credit-driven collapse. High levels of homeowner equity, strengthened lending standards, and the absence of widespread distressed inventory have prevented the type of cascading decline witnessed during the Great Recession. Rather than forced selling, today’s sellers are largely discretionary and more likely to delay action than reduce price beyond market tolerance.
Price behavior in 2025 has exhibited controlled softening without volatility. The index opened the year at 1.0322 in January and has gradually eased to 1.0101 by September. Month-over-month movements have generally ranged between flat and minor negative readings, typically between zero and negative 0.25 percent. This behavior indicates that the decline phase is decelerating and moving into stabilization rather than accelerating into deeper contraction. There are no signals of systemic instability, and the market continues to normalize rather than deteriorate. The environment remains constrained by elevated interest rates, which temper transactional flow and purchasing capacity, yet limited supply has prevented a sharper price correction.
Austin remains closely aligned with the national market when measured on a long-term inflation-adjusted basis. Since January 2000, home values in Austin are up 68.3 percent versus 70.7 percent nationally. Austin experienced one of the strongest surges during the 2020 to 2022 expansion period, which is why its normalization phase has been more pronounced. Conditions remain structurally higher than pre-pandemic norms, but the depth of Austin’s correction has reintroduced pricing negotiability and opportunity to a degree not seen in several years. Buyers now have improved selection and greater leverage. Sellers must approach the market with precise pricing strategy, elevated presentation standards, and realistic expectations. Investors should shift focus away from speculative gains and toward fundamentals, cash flow strength, and market durability.
The September 2025 National Market Index reinforces that the U.S. housing market is in a measured correction phase, not a crisis. Prices have retreated from peak but remain historically elevated. Affordability challenges persist and continue to constrain demand, yet structural supply limitations provide a floor that has prevented sharper decline. Market trajectory over the next twelve to twenty-four months will hinge on the direction of monetary policy, wage progression, and consumer confidence. The era of rapid appreciation driven by surging liquidity is behind us. The next phase will be characterized by stabilization, preservation of owner equity, and strategic opportunity, particularly in markets like Austin where pricing unwinds have moved faster, creating tactical entry points for buyers and long-term investors previously priced out of the market.
