The Austin real estate market enters February 9, 2026 with inventory elevated, demand steady but restrained, and pricing still adjusting after the historic peak of 2022. Active residential listings currently stand at 13,092, which is 11.2 percent higher than the same time last year. While this level of inventory is meaningfully lower than the June 2025 peak of 18,146 listings, it remains well above pre-pandemic norms and continues to give buyers leverage. Nearly half of all active listings, or 49.1 percent, have experienced at least one price reduction, reinforcing that sellers are still chasing the market rather than leading it.
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This inventory mix is increasingly split between resale and new construction. Of today’s active listings, 4,072 are new construction while 9,020 are resale homes. Builders continue to contribute materially to overall supply, but resale inventory remains the dominant force shaping pricing pressure. Compared to last year, active listings have risen by 1,314 homes, a reminder that supply has not fully cleared even as buyer activity has stabilized.
New listings tell a different story. Cumulative new listings from January through early February total 4,739, which is down 39.4 percent year over year and nearly 22 percent below the long-term average. This is a sharp pullback in seller activity and suggests many homeowners are choosing to sit tight rather than list into a slower, more price-sensitive market. The drop in new supply is helping prevent inventory from rebuilding rapidly, but it is not yet strong enough to shift momentum back toward sellers.
Pending activity remains relatively flat compared to last year. Pending listings currently total 3,714, which is up just 0.5 percent year over year. This modest increase shows that demand has not collapsed, but it has also not meaningfully improved. New construction accounts for 1,466 of these pending contracts, while resale homes account for 2,248. Buyers continue to favor resale homes, particularly those that are well priced and move-in ready.
The cumulative pending count from January through February sits at 3,746, which is down more than 43 percent year over year and 37 percent below historical norms. This gap between listings coming to market and contracts being written is one of the clearest indicators of today’s slower absorption environment. The monthly new listing to pending ratio currently sits at 0.52, well below the 25-year average of 0.82. On a year-to-date basis, the ratio improves slightly to 0.67, but it still reflects a market where new supply is outpacing demand.
This imbalance shows up clearly in the Activity Index, which measures the percentage of active listings going under contract. The overall Activity Index for 2026 is 22.1 percent, down from 23.9 percent last year. New construction continues to outperform with an Activity Index of 26.47 percent, while resale homes lag at 19.95 percent. This places much of the resale market in the softening and contraction phases, where sales slow, inventory rises, and pricing pressure increases.
When broken down further, a significant share of resale markets now fall into contraction or crisis conditions. Roughly 48 percent of resale submarkets are operating below a 20 percent Activity Index, a range historically associated with stalled markets and price declines. This helps explain why price reductions remain so widespread and why sellers are having to adjust expectations.
Months of Inventory provides another clear signal. Overall Months of Inventory currently stands at 4.66 months, up 13.4 percent from last year. While this level is not extreme by historical standards, it firmly places the market in neutral to buyer-advantaged territory. Resale inventory paints an even clearer picture. Many cities and zip codes now sit in ranges associated with buyer control, where excess supply leads to longer days on market and declining prices.
Year over year, the City of Austin has seen Months of Inventory decline slightly by 3.2 percent, while the broader two-year comparison shows inventory still up nearly 10 percent. This divergence highlights an important theme for the current Austin housing forecast: conditions vary widely by location, price point, and property type. Broad averages mask meaningful local differences that buyers and sellers must account for.
Sales activity remains mixed. February closed with 1,981 sold properties across the Austin area. Cumulative sales from January through February total 3,616, which is down 6.7 percent year over year but nearly 9 percent above the long-term average. This suggests that while sales are slower than last year, they are not historically weak. However, when adjusted for population, sales per 100,000 residents are down more than 22 percent below average, showing that transaction volume has not kept pace with population growth.
Pricing trends continue to reflect a post-peak correction. The average sold price in February was $556,210, down roughly 18.4 percent from the May 2022 peak of $681,939. Median sold prices tell a similar story. The current median of $425,000 is down 22.7 percent from the 2022 peak of $550,000. These declines represent a reset toward affordability rather than a collapse, but they underscore how far the market moved during the pandemic boom.
Compared to 36 months ago, median prices are still down about 2.3 percent, indicating that real price recovery has not yet begun. Price performance also varies by segment. The bottom 25 percent of homes by price saw year-over-year declines of nearly 6 percent, while the top 25 percent remained flat on price but still saw slight declines on a price-per-square-foot basis. This divergence reflects stronger demand resilience at higher price points and continued pressure on entry-level and mid-range homes.
Looking forward, long-term projections help frame expectations. Using Austin’s 25-year average appreciation rate of 4.554 percent, and assuming the market has reached a cyclical bottom at a $425,000 median price, it would take approximately 71 months, or until late 2031, to return to prior peak values. This is not a forecast of guaranteed appreciation, but a mathematical reminder that recoveries take time after periods of excess.
Other demand indicators reinforce the current slowdown. The absorption rate, measured as the sold-to-active ratio, sits at just 14.73 percent, well below the historical average of 31.54 percent. The Market Flow Score, which combines multiple turnover metrics, currently registers at 3.07 versus a historical norm of 6.58. These readings confirm that the Austin housing market is operating at reduced efficiency, with slower turnover and cautious buyer behavior.
For buyers, this environment continues to offer opportunity. Inventory remains elevated, price reductions are common, and negotiation leverage is firmly back on the table. For sellers, success now depends on pricing correctly from the start and understanding local conditions at the city and zip code level. Investors and agents should view this phase as one of normalization, where data, discipline, and patience matter more than speed.
The Austin real estate market is no longer correcting violently, but it is still unwinding the excesses of the past cycle. This austin market update reflects a city finding its footing again, slowly recalibrating toward sustainable demand, balanced supply, and realistic pricing.
