Austin’s housing market continues to wrestle with a supply-heavy environment that has shifted momentum toward buyers as 2025 winds down. Active listings are elevated, sales velocity is slowing, and prices remain well below their 2022 peak. While the pace of new listings has cooled slightly, absorption is lagging, pointing to a market still working through the consequences of oversupply and affordability constraints.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for November 7, 2025.
The Austin housing market currently has 15,797 active residential listings—up 14 percent compared to this time last year when there were 13,853. The inventory peak of 18,146 earlier this summer has since moderated slightly, but the sheer volume remains high for November. Nearly 58 percent of all active listings have experienced at least one price reduction, underscoring that sellers are having to adjust expectations as competition for qualified buyers intensifies. Cumulative new listings for the year now total 45,827, which is 1 percent higher year-over-year and roughly 18 percent above Austin’s long-term average. That level of new supply, even with modest demand, continues to keep the market from tightening.
On the demand side, pending listings have slipped from 3,942 last year to 3,781 now—a 4.1 percent decrease. Cumulative pending contracts through November sit at 38,488, down 7.2 percent compared to 2024 but still 0.8 percent above the historic average. The result is a net year-to-date gap of more than 7,300 listings between new supply and new contracts, reflecting a market that’s adding inventory faster than it can absorb it. The monthly new-listing-to-pending ratio now stands at 0.60, well below the 25-year average of 0.82. Put simply, for every 10 new listings hitting the market, only about six are going under contract.
The Austin housing forecast for late 2025 shows that the slowdown is not evenly distributed. The Activity Index—a key measure of contract activity relative to total inventory—has dropped from 22.2 percent in 2024 to 19.3 percent today, a 12.8 percent decline. When broken down, new construction continues to outperform resale, with builders maintaining a 26 percent Activity Index compared to just 16.6 percent for existing homes. This divide highlights how builders’ ability to offer incentives, rate buydowns, and closing cost assistance gives them a competitive edge in a price-sensitive environment. Among resale properties, nearly half of all ZIP codes are operating in what’s considered the “Contraction Zone,” where Activity Index values fall between 15 and 20 percent, signaling slow absorption and downward pricing pressure.
The Months of Inventory metric—perhaps the clearest indicator of supply-demand balance—now sits at 5.60 months, up from 4.90 a year ago, marking a 14 percent increase. For context, Austin’s historical norm hovers closer to 4.5 months. Anything above six months generally favors buyers, and much of the market is now hovering near that threshold. Within this metric, roughly 40 percent of areas are in the Neutral Zone (150 to 207 days on market), while nearly one in five is in “Buyer Control” territory with listings sitting more than 270 days. These patterns confirm that while activity has not frozen, the market has decisively shifted from the frenzied conditions of 2021 and early 2022 to one characterized by cautious buyers and patient sellers.
Sales volume data reinforces this story. The Austin area recorded 2,274 closed sales in the latest monthly report, bringing the year-to-date total to 27,884. That’s 3.3 percent lower than the same point last year, though still about 7.7 percent above Austin’s long-term average. On a per-capita basis, 1,089 homes have sold for every 100,000 residents, a figure down 5.6 percent from 2024 and more than 20 percent below historical norms. Meanwhile, cumulative sold transactions per 1,000 Realtors have inched up slightly year-over-year but remain 23 percent below average, emphasizing that while there are still deals closing, the competition among agents has intensified.
Prices, meanwhile, remain below the cycle peak reached three years ago. The average sold price in November stands at $618,329, roughly 9.3 percent lower than the $681,939 peak of May 2022—a difference of about $64,000. The median sold price tells a similar story, sitting at $450,545 today versus $550,000 at the peak, an 18 percent decline amounting to a $99,000 loss in median value since 2022. On a three-year trailing basis, median prices are 2 percent lower than they were in 2022, showing that despite moderate fluctuations, the overall trend has been flat to slightly negative for two years running. From a long-term perspective, Austin’s 25-year compound annual appreciation rate remains 4.986 percent. Assuming that rate continues, it would take roughly 52 months—until February 2030—for the median price to climb back to its previous $550,000 peak. That projection underscores the slower, more normalized pace of recovery compared to the rapid appreciation cycle of the last decade.
Segment-level performance reveals growing price stratification. Compared to last year, the bottom 25th percentile of home prices is down 1.5 percent, with price-per-square-foot slipping 3.3 percent. Meanwhile, the top 25th percentile has gained 5.7 percent in price and 2.9 percent in price-per-square-foot. This means higher-end listings are holding their ground better than entry-level properties, largely due to continued wealth migration into the metro and fewer affordability constraints for luxury buyers. Across the 29 tracked cities in the Austin area, eight show year-over-year median price increases while twenty-one have declined, indicating the market remains highly uneven.
The broader Austin real estate forecast also reflects a cooling pace of turnover. The absorption rate, which measures the percentage of active listings sold in a given period, stands at 16.4 percent—roughly half the historical average of 31.7 percent. That’s a clear sign of slower transaction velocity and a more deliberate buyer decision process. The Market Flow Score, a composite index of turnover efficiency, has dropped to 4.64, well below the historical norm of 6.59. Lower MFS readings indicate longer marketing times, weaker buyer urgency, and an overall drag on market liquidity.
For buyers, the Austin housing landscape entering late 2025 offers opportunity paired with patience. Inventory is plentiful, incentives are common, and negotiation leverage has shifted in their favor. Sellers, however, face a market where pricing too aggressively can backfire quickly. Homes that are priced correctly at or below recent comparable sales continue to attract attention, but those anchored to 2021 or 2022 expectations risk extended days on market and multiple price reductions. Investors, meanwhile, find themselves in a mixed environment—returns on appreciation remain limited in the short term, but steady long-term growth around 5 percent per year suggests solid fundamentals for those focused on cash flow and patience.
For real estate agents, this market demands sharper data literacy and proactive client guidance. The days of reactive listing strategies are over. With the new-listing-to-pending ratio stuck at 0.60 and months of inventory climbing, agents must counsel sellers on positioning for visibility and advise buyers on realistic timing and value metrics. Understanding where each neighborhood sits in the Activity Index matrix—expansion, equilibrium, or contraction—has never been more critical for strategic pricing and offer strategy.
Looking forward, the Austin real estate forecast for early 2026 points to continued balance but with no imminent return to the high-velocity seller markets of prior years. Inventory should stabilize as fewer new listings hit the market over winter, but demand will likely remain sensitive to mortgage rates and affordability. Assuming rates ease modestly, the second half of 2026 could mark the beginning of a gradual recovery cycle—but it will be measured, not manic. For now, the defining story is a market that’s rebalancing itself, favoring realism over speculation, and rewarding those who understand the numbers rather than the noise.
