Austin’s housing market continues to shift toward buyer control as inventory rises, demand softens, and sellers adjust to a new pricing reality.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for November 5, 2025.
As of Wednesday, November 5, 2025, the Austin real estate market is clearly operating in a slower rhythm than in prior years. There are 15,834 active residential listings across the Austin area—up 14.9% year over year and just below the June 2025 high of 18,146. Nearly 59% of all homes for sale have seen at least one price reduction, a powerful indicator that sellers are chasing the market rather than leading it. While inventory is abundant, buyer activity has not kept pace, leaving the market with more choices than momentum.
Pending listings total 3,773, down 4.0% compared with this time last year. Cumulatively, from January through November, 38,246 homes have gone under contract—a 7.7% drop from 2024. The New Listing-to-Pending ratio sits at 0.63, meaning that only 63 of every 100 homes listed are going under contract. Historically, that ratio averages 0.82, which underscores how much absorption has weakened in 2025. This imbalance between supply and demand continues to pressure prices and extend market timelines for sellers.
The Activity Index—a proprietary measure of market velocity—has fallen to 19.2%, down from 22.2% one year ago, a 13.3% year-over-year decline. New construction maintains a stronger pace at 25.79%, while resale activity sits at a modest 16.53%. Across all market phases, only 3% of ZIP codes remain in “equilibrium” territory with balanced absorption. Roughly 52% are in contraction and 19% are in full crisis or freeze phases, where buyer demand stalls and price corrections accelerate. In practical terms, most of the Austin area is now a buyer-driven environment where listings linger and negotiation power has shifted decisively away from sellers.
From a broader supply perspective, new listings for November are down sharply—off 88.7% from last year and 87.2% below historical norms, suggesting seasonal slowdowns have compounded the year’s cooling trend. Yet even with fewer new entries, total active inventory remains elevated because homes simply aren’t turning over fast enough. The cumulative gap between new listings and pending contracts has widened to 7,291, reinforcing the reality that excess supply continues to build up faster than demand can absorb it.
The months of inventory metric, one of the clearest signals of market balance, now stands at 5.62 months—up nearly 15% from last year’s 4.89 months. At this level, Austin’s housing market leans firmly toward buyers, offering greater selection and increased negotiation leverage. Within city boundaries, Austin proper shows a nearly flat 0.5% decrease year over year (4.82 months vs. 4.84 in 2024), which means the core city remains relatively more stable than its suburban counterparts. Submarkets such as Lockhart, Del Valle, and Hutto, however, have seen dramatic inventory growth between 70% and 90% year over year, reflecting the sharpest slowdowns in absorption. Conversely, smaller markets like Manchaca, Lago Vista, and Driftwood have seen measurable declines in inventory, but these improvements are the exception rather than the rule.
Across the entire metro area, market classification data shows only 20% of cities in “Seller Acceleration,” while the majority sit between “Neutral Zone” and “Buyer Control.” Twenty-four percent of ZIP codes fall into the Seller Edge category (moderately competitive), but 31% are neutral, 7% have entered Buyer Advantage territory, and 9% are fully under Buyer Control. The longer inventory stays above five months, the more entrenched buyer leverage becomes.
Sold activity underscores this cooling pattern. Austin recorded 2,291 closed sales in October, bringing the year-to-date total to 25,561—down 3.5% from last year but still 7.0% above the long-term average. On a population-adjusted basis, home sales have slipped to 999 per 100,000 residents, 21% below the historic benchmark. Realtor productivity has also softened, with 1,376 sales per 1,000 agents—down nearly a quarter from average. Simply put, the Austin housing market is producing fewer transactions per agent and per capita than it did in prior years, another reflection of demand drag.
Prices tell the story from another angle. The average sold price in October was $593,949, a 12.9% decline from the May 2022 peak of $681,939. The median sold price now sits at $437,000, down 20.55% from the same 2022 high of $550,000. The drop equates to $113,000 in lost median value since the pandemic-era peak, effectively resetting the market to early-2021 levels. Tracking median sold prices against their levels 36 months ago, Austin shows a 7.02% decline, confirming that long-term appreciation has been temporarily erased by the recent correction cycle. The city’s 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.858% implies that, even if the market bottomed at today’s $437,000 median, it would take roughly 62 months—or until late 2030—to return to the former peak of $551,849 under normal growth conditions.
Performance diverges notably across price tiers. The bottom 25th percentile of homes is down 1.82% year over year, while the top 25th percentile is up 6.19%. This split suggests that higher-end inventory continues to show resilience, buoyed by cash buyers and limited competition, whereas the lower-priced segment remains more sensitive to financing costs and affordability pressures. Median price appreciation across cities remains negative in most submarkets, with only eight cities showing year-over-year gains and 21 reporting declines.
The absorption rate—a measure of how much active inventory sells in a given period—has dropped to 16.17%, barely half of the 31.70% long-term average. A market operating at this pace typically experiences slower turnover, longer days on market, and more frequent price reductions. For sellers, it means a greater need for precision in pricing strategy and presentation. For buyers, it translates to opportunity—negotiation room, seller concessions, and the ability to compare more properties before committing.
Another indicator, the Market Flow Score, currently stands at 4.50 on a 10-point scale, below the historical average of 6.59. This index blends active-to-sold ratios, demand-supply velocity, and turnover efficiency to quantify how efficiently listings convert to closings. A score in the mid-4s reflects a sluggish, supply-heavy environment where homes move slowly and buyers dictate terms. Market momentum, once defined by multiple offers and short listing times, has given way to an environment where time favors patience and data-driven pricing.
From a forecasting standpoint, the Austin real estate market appears to be settling into a long-duration correction rather than a short-term dip. Elevated inventory, subdued absorption, and continued price adjustments suggest that balance will not return until demand strengthens—either through income growth, interest rate relief, or migration-driven expansion. With affordability still stretched and buyer psychology cautious, any recovery in 2026 is likely to be gradual and uneven.
For real estate professionals, today’s numbers signal the importance of market fluency and expectation management. Agents who can translate these metrics into clear, client-ready strategies will maintain an edge—whether advising sellers on pricing realism or helping buyers understand true value. For investors, the current environment presents opportunities for selective acquisition, especially in markets where inventory growth has peaked and seller motivation is high. For buyers, it’s a chance to re-enter the Austin housing market at pricing levels unseen since the pre-pandemic years. And for sellers, it’s a reminder that the market rewards adaptability over nostalgia.
The Austin housing forecast continues to lean toward stability through correction, not collapse. With the median price now down more than 20% from its peak and months of inventory pushing past five months, 2025 is shaping up as the bridge year between overvaluation and normalization. Whether that bridge leads to a flat plateau or a new wave of growth will depend on how quickly affordability improves. For now, the data is clear: Austin’s housing market remains in a buyer-driven phase, where patience, pricing discipline, and local expertise make all the difference.
