Austin’s housing market shows signs of seasonal cooling as supply remains high, prices remain below peak, and buyer activity lags historical norms.

Market Overview

As of August 13, 2025, active residential listings in the Austin-area MLS stand at 17,445, down 701 from the late-June high of 18,146 but still 15.3% higher than the 15,127 listings at this time in 2024. Notably, 59.1% of all active listings have had at least one price drop, signaling that sellers are becoming more flexible in a competitive market. Year-to-date new listings total 35,492, which is flat year-over-year but 18.3% above the historical average. Pending listings are up slightly—4,307 today compared to 4,187 last year, a 2.9% gain—but cumulative pending sales from January to August remain 9.2% lower than 2024 and 1.9% below the long-term average. This disconnect between active inventory and buyer contract activity is keeping the Activity Index at 19.8%, down from 21.7% a year ago, underscoring a softer demand environment than normal for late summer.

Housing Prices

Median sold price now sits at $452,807, marking a 17.67% drop from the May 2022 peak of $550,000—a $97,000 decline. Average sold price is $633,516, still 7.1% below the May 2022 high of $681,939. When compared to prices three years ago, today’s median is down 8.75%. Price performance varies by segment. Homes in the top 25th percentile (luxury/high-end) are up 4.0% year-over-year in median price, though average price per square foot is down 3.02%. In contrast, the bottom 25th percentile has seen median prices dip 0.61% and price per square foot fall 3.83%. This split suggests the luxury market is holding value better than entry-level homes, even in a slower sales climate.

Inventory & Market Balance

The Austin market now holds 6.21 months of inventory, up from 5.34 months a year ago—a 16.3% year-over-year increase. By historical standards, this tilts toward a buyer’s market. Certain submarkets are experiencing particularly large supply increases, with cities like Smithville, Jarrell, Burnet, and Leander posting inventory jumps of 50% or more compared to last August. Year-to-date, the ratio of new listings to pending sales is 0.69, well below the 25-year average of 0.82. This reflects a slower turnover rate, as more listings enter the market than buyers are putting under contract. For August so far, the monthly new-to-pending ratio is just 0.63.

Sales Activity & Demand

A total of 2,688 properties sold in the most recent monthly tally. From January through August, cumulative sales reached 20,470—down 5.0% from the same period in 2024 but 5.7% above the long-term average. However, when adjusting for population growth and the number of licensed agents, market efficiency looks weaker. Sales per 100,000 population are down 7.3% year-over-year and sit 22% below the long-term average. Sales per 1,000 Realtors are down 0.8% from last year and 25.7% below average. The Sold-to-Active Ratio stands at 16.07%, roughly half the historical norm of 31.88%, reinforcing that absorption is low and competition among sellers is high.

Forecast Implications

At the current 25-year average appreciation rate of 5.007%, it would take about 50 months—until September 2029—for median prices to return to the May 2022 peak of $550,269. This assumes the market is currently at the bottom of its correction phase. For now, the Market Flow Score is 4.32, compared to a historical average of 6.60. This below-average reading points to a sluggish, supply-heavy environment where buyers have greater negotiating leverage.

What This Means for Buyers, Sellers, and Agents

For buyers, current conditions provide more choice and leverage than in previous years. High inventory, frequent price drops, and a lower sold-to-active ratio mean motivated sellers are more likely to negotiate. Sellers, on the other hand, face the reality of competing for a limited buyer pool and must price strategically from the outset to avoid joining the growing list of homes with price reductions. For investors, the gap between high-end and entry-level appreciation trends is worth watching. Luxury properties have shown price resilience despite slower turnover, while more affordable homes face pricing pressure. Agents should focus on market education, setting realistic expectations for sellers, and guiding buyers to areas with inventory surpluses where the best deals may be found.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for Wednesday, August 13, 2025.​